Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick
People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds
1. Auflage März 2018
256 Seiten, Hardcover
Praktikerbuch
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Beat the odds with a bold strategy
We've all seen hockey stick business plans before. A future where results sail confidently upward, but with a dip coinciding with next year's budget.
CEOs usually rely on their experience and business smarts to figure out which of those hockey sticks are real, and which are fake. But all too often getting to a "yes," competing for resources, and striving to claim credit, cloud the hard decisions. Another strategy framework? No thanks, we already have plenty of those, and they don't fix the real problem: the social dynamics in your strategy room.
Mining the data from thousands of large companies, McKinsey Partners Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt and Sven Smit open the windows of that room, and bring an "outside view." They found three discrete groups of companies: the bottom quintile with massive economic losses; the long, flat, middle 60 percent with practically no economic profit; and the top 20 percent to whom all the value accrues.
Some companies do achieve real hockey stick performance: but just 1-in-12 jump from the middle tier to the top over a ten year period. This does not happen by magic--there is an empirically-backed science to improve your odds of success by capitalizing on your endowment, riding the right trends, and most importantly, making a few big moves.
To make these big moves happen, you're going to have to break through inertia, gamesmanship and risk aversion. You're going to have to mitigate human biases and manage group dynamics. Eight practical shifts can help you do this, and unlock bigger, bolder, better strategies.
This is not another by-the-book approach to strategy. It's not another trudge through frameworks or small-scale case studies promising a secret formula for success. It's an irreverent, fact-driven, and humorous take on the real world of strategic decision making.
You are not alone 2
The villain is the social side of strategy 4
Where is the outside view? 6
Making big moves happen 8
The journey ahead of us 9
1. Games in the Strategy Room--and Why People Play Them 13
The social side of strategy, in action 15
The dreaded hockey stick 17
Can we handle the truth? 20
Playing the inside game 21
Send in the guru 22
The wrong problem for human brains 23
The biased mind 25
Now add social dynamics to the mix 27
When the inside view remains unchecked 31
2. Opening the Windows of Your Strategy Room 37
The right yardstick 40
Your business lives on a Power Curve 42
What we see on the map 44
Why you are where you are 49
A fresh perspective with the outside view 53
3. Hockey Stick Dreams, Hairy Back Realities 57
The rise of the hairy back 58
Getting to yes 60
A haircut from finance 60
Bold forecasts 62
Timid plans 68
Corporate peanut butter 70
Shooting for the known 70
Real hockey sticks 72
4. What are the Odds? 75
The knowable probability of success 77
Flight paths of the upwardly mobile 80
A tale of three companies 83
Where are the odds in the strategy room? 85
The push for certainty 87
You are your numbers 89
5. How to Find the Real Hockey Stick 93
What's different this time? 94
Check the facts 95
The odds that matter: Yours 96
The 10 variables that make the difference 99
Endowment 100
Trends 101
Moves 102
It all matters 103
The mobility dashboard 105
Know the odds 109
Is that all? 110
6. The Writing is on the Wall 115
A very different conversation about strategy 118
Tennis or badminton? 119
Industries are escalators 120
Change your industry or change industries 123
Consider changing locations, too 124
Go micro 125
The need for privileged insights 127
Acting on the writing on the wall 128
The four stages of a disruptive trend 130
Stage one: Signals amid the noise 132
Stage two: Change takes hold 134
Stage three: The inevitable transformation 136
The hardest stage 136
Stage four: Adapting to the new normal 139
7. Making the Right (big) Moves 143
Big moves are essential 146
Corning's story 150
Programmatic M&A and divestitures 150
Active resource re-allocation 152
To re-allocate, you have to de-allocate 156
Strong capital programs 156
Caution on capex 158
Distinctive productivity improvement 158
Running fast and getting nowhere 159
Differentiation improvement 162
Are you playing to your advantage? 165
Big moves make for good strategy 166
8. Eight Shifts to Unlock Strategy 173
From annual planning ... to strategy as a journey 175
From getting to "yes" ... to debating real alternatives 177
From peanut butter ... to picking your 1-in-10s 181
From approving budgets ... to making big moves 184
From budget inertia ... to liquid resources 188
From sandbagging ... to open risk portfolios 190
From "you are your numbers" ... to a holistic performance view 193
From long-range planning ... to forcing the first step 196
The package deal 198
Epilogue: New Life in the Strategy Room 201
Acknowledgments 205
Appendix 207
About our sample and method 207
A note on economic profi t and total returns to shareholders 209
How the odds look different from the top or bottom 209
Life at the top 211
Life at the bottom 211
Notes 215
Index 227
MARTIN HIRT is a Senior Partner in Greater China. He leads McKinsey's Global Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice.
CHRIS BRADLEY is a Partner in Sydney. He leads McKinsey's Business Strategy service line.
