|Chase, Charles W.|
A Structured Approach to Forecasting
SAS Institute Inc
1. Edition September 2009
2009. 288 Pages, Hardcover
ISBN 978-0-470-41502-3 - John Wiley & Sons
E-Books are also available on all known E-Book shops.
A detailed guide on the process of improving business forecasting
This practitioner-focused book provides readers with real, proven processes, methodologies, and performance metrics that can be applied immediately with significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Filled with real-life examples and case studies to illustrate both best-in-class approaches as well as initial start-up approaches, it features coverage of topics including myths versus reality of forecasting, how to perform a strategic value assessment, and cultural barriers in forecasting. Focused on the implementation and integration of sales forecasting and marketing analysis, this book outlines a systematic approach that is a data-based, mathematically derived framework using domain knowledge to facilitate "what if" simulations for strategic/tactical planning.
Charles Chase (Cary, NC) is the Business Enablement Manager for SAS Manufacturing and Supply Chain Global Practice.
From the contents
Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality.
Data Collection, Storage, and Processing Reality.
"Art of Forecasting" Myth.
End-Cap Display Dilemma.
Reality of Judgmental Overrides.
Oven Cleaner Connection.
More Is Not Necessarily Better.
Reality of Unconstrained Forecasts, Constrained Forecasts, and Plans.
Northeast Regional Sales Equation.
"Hold and Roll" Myth.
The Plan That Wasn't Good Enough.
Chapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?
"Do You Want Fries with That?"
Definition of Demand-Driven Forecasting.
What Is Demand Sensing?
Role of Sales and Marketing.
What Is Demand Shaping?
Integrating Demand-Driven Forecasting into the Consensus Forecasting Process.
Importance of Business Intelligence Portals/Dashboards.
Role of the Finance Department.
Demand-Driven Forecasting Process Flow Model.
Key Process Participants.
Benefits of Demand-Driven Forecasting.
Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods.
Different Categories of Methods.
How Predictable Is the Future?
Some Causes of Forecast Error.
Segmenting Your Products to Choose the Appropriate Forecasting Method.
Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance.
We Overachieved Our Forecast, So Let's Party!
Purposes for Measuring Forecasting Performance
Standard Statistical Error Terms.
Specific Measures of Forecast Error.
Forecast Value Added.
Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data
Understanding the Model-Fitting Process.
Introduction to Quantitative Time Series Methods.
Quantitative Time Series Methods.
Single Exponential Smoothing.
Holt's Two-Parameter Method.
Winters' Additive Seasonality.
Chapter 6 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Causal Data.
Box-Jenkins Approach to ARIMA Models.
Extending ARIMA Models to Include Explanatory Variables.
Unobserved Component Models.
Chapter 7 Weighted Combined Forecasting Methods.
What Is Weighted Combined Forecasting?
Developing a Variance Weighted Combined Forecast.
Chapter 8 Sensing, Shaping, and Linking Demand to Supply: A Case Study Using MTCA.
Linking Demand to Supply Using Multi-tiered Causal Analysis.
Case Study: The Carbonated Soft Drink Story.
Appendix 8A Consumer Packaged Goods Terminology.
Appendix 8B. Adstock Transformations for Advertising GRP/TRPs.
Chapter 9 Strategic Value Assessment: Assessing the Readiness of Your Demand Forecasting Process.
Strategic Value Assessment Framework.
Strategic Value Assessment Process.
A SVA Case Study: XYZ Company.