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Morris, Gregory L.
Investing with the Trend
A Rules-based Approach to Money Management
Bloomberg Professional

1. Edition March 2014
83.90 Euro
2014. 496 Pages, Hardcover
ISBN 978-1-118-50837-4 - John Wiley & Sons




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Investing with the Trend provides an abundance of evidence for adapting a rules-based approach to investing by offering something most avoid, and that is to answer the "why" one would do it this way. It explains the need to try to participate in the good markets and avoid the bad markets, with cash being considered an asset class. The book is in three primary sections and tries to leave no stone unturned in offering almost 40 years of experience in the markets.Part I - The focus is on much of the misinformation in modern finance, the inappropriate use of Gaussian statistics, the faulty assumptions with Modern Portfolio Theory, and a host of other examples. The author attempts to explain each and offer justification for his often strong opinions.Part II - After a lead chapter on the merits of technical analysis, the author offers detailed research into trend analysis, showing how to identify if a market is trending or not and how to measure it. Further research involves the concept of Drawdown, which the author adamantly states is a better measure of investor risk than the oft used and terribly wrong use of volatility as determined by standard deviation. Part III - This is where he puts it all together and shows the reader all of the steps and details on how to create a rules-based trend following investment strategy. A solid disciplined strategy consists of three parts, a measure of what the market is actually doing, a set of rules and guidelines to tell you how to invest based upon that measurement, and the discipline to follow the strategyInvesting with the Trend provides an abundance of evidence for adapting a rules-based approach to investing by offering something most avoid, and that is to answer the "why" one would do it this way. It explains the need to try to participate in the good markets and avoid the bad markets, with cash being considered an asset class. The book is in three primary sections and tries to leave no stone unturned in offering almost 40 years of experience in the markets.Part I - The focus is on much of the misinformation in modern finance, the inappropriate use of Gaussian statistics, the faulty assumptions with Modern Portfolio Theory, and a host of other examples. The author attempts to explain each and offer justification for his often strong opinions.Part II - After a lead chapter on the merits of technical analysis, the author offers detailed research into trend analysis, showing how to identify if a market is trending or not and how to measure it. Further research involves the concept of Drawdown, which the author adamantly states is a better measure of investor risk than the oft used and terribly wrong use of volatility as determined by standard deviation. Part III - This is where he puts it all together and shows the reader all of the steps and details on how to create a rules-based trend following investment strategy. A solid disciplined strategy consists of three parts, a measure of what the market is actually doing, a set of rules and guidelines to tell you how to invest based upon that measurement, and the discipline to follow the strategy

From the contents
Foreword ixPreface xiAcknowledgments xvChapter 1Introduction 1Part I: Market Fiction, Flaws, and Facts 13Chapter 2Fictions Told to Investors 15Chapter 3Flaws in Modern Financial Theory 27Chapter 4Misuse of Statistics and Other Controversial Practices 51Chapter 5The Illusion of Forecasting 57Chapter 6The Enemy in the Mirror 71Chapter 7Market Facts: Bull and Bear Markets 83Chapter 8Market Facts: Valuations, Returns, and Distributions 113Part II: Market Research 139Chapter 9Why Technical Analysis? 141Chapter 10Market Trend Analysis 159Chapter 11Drawdown Analysis 231Part III: Rules-Based Money Management 267Chapter 12Popular Indicators and Their Uses 269Chapter 13Measuring the Market 281Chapter 14Security Ranking, Selection, Rules, and Guidelines 319Chapter 15Putting It All Together: The "Dancing with the Trend" Model 355Chapter 16Putting Trend-Following to Work 391Chapter 17Conclusions 399Appendix A: Passive versus Active Management 409Appendix B: Trend Analysis Tables 413Appendix C: Market Breadth 445Appendix D: Recommended Reading 457Bibliography 459About the Author 467About the Online Resources 469Index 471

 




 

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