Supertrends
50 Things you Need to Know About the Future
1. Auflage Dezember 2019
304 Seiten, Softcover
Wiley & Sons Ltd
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Take a look into the future and discover the trends that are shaping our world
Futurists are in the business of predicting the future. What do the most efficient futurists know? You'll find the answer inside Supertrends: 50 Things You Need to Know About the Future. Discover how we can expect the world to evolve in terms of demographics, economics, technology, environment and beyond. Whatever it is that you do, you will be able to better prepare for the future if you can just get a clear view of it.
These are turbulent times, and we all need to be ready for what's coming if we hope to thrive. This book addresses what we can expect in the coming decades, and how companies and government should adapt to accelerating change. You will also see improvement in your own ability to predict the next big thing - a valuable skill in any walk of life.
* Discover the core principles of efficient forecasting
* Identify underlying drivers and recurring social patterns which help explain and predict events
* Learn about evolving and expected future technologies and lifestyles, and how they will be applied in the coming decades
* See how companies and governments can become more future-proof by adopting new and innovative management principles
Author Lars Tvede is a serial entrepreneur and currently works as founding partner in the successful venture fund Nordic Eye, the think tank Futures Institute and the forecasting company Supertrends. Throughout his career, he has found success through his uncanny ability to predict the trends that will take our world forward. Read this book to benefit from his insights and get a handle on what's coming next in our dynamic world. Anyone who needs to understand the future - from financial executives, industry leaders and entrepreneurs to journalists and politicians - will benefit from Supertrends.
1. Feeler, Thinker, Hedgehog, Fox - On Predictions 1
Are you a feeler or a thinker? 2
Hedgehogs and foxes - which are best at seeing the future? 7
No! As in never! 7
Our knowledge at double speed 14
The creative design field 21
The world's a much better place than people think 26
2. Demography and Prosperity 33
The West versus the rest 35
Population growth is actually decreasing rapidly 37
Huge growth in prosperity continues 41
A massive elderly boom 44
Depopulation of rural areas 45
Increased global equality and local inequality - but will this continue? 45
A more peaceful world 49
The lost billion people - the world's biggest problem? 51
3. The Biotechnological Revolution - Life as Computer Technology 53
CRISPR - the new genetic word processing 56
New genetically engineered species 60
Recreation of extinct species - the real Jurassic Park 60
Tomorrow's genetically modified humans 66
A healthier, safer world 69
Revolutions in the fight against cancer 70
New cells for old lives 74
Wearables, self-diagnoses, biohacking, and lifestyle medicine 77
The intelligent healthcare of the future 79
4. Computers, Software, and Electronic Networks 81
From exceptional to magical 83
Bell's Law of new computer classes 86
Cloud computing and the as-a-service movement 88
AI - the career cul-de-sac that suddenly got hot 89
IoT - nerve fibres for the mechanical world 95
Big data = big deal 99
Smart robots - the new ecosystem 103
Smart remote control - the magic wands of reality 107
Quantum computers - billions of times faster 108
VR - dream worlds for real 111
AR - Pokémon GO on steroids 111
Ambient user experience - the frictionless total experiences 113
Cyberattack - crime-as-a-service and lots more besides 114
The new stalker economy 115
5. The Path to Infinite Energy 119
Fossil fuels - the culmination is approaching 120
Vast, constantly growing reserves 122
Nuclear power - a renaissance on the way? 128
Nuclear fusion - the ultimate energy solution 132
6. The Importance of Innovation for Resources and Environment 139
Innovation, dear friends. Innovation! 142
Ideas - the ultimate resource 146
Meat produced without animals 156
Greater prosperity, better environment 161
Global warming in perspective 163
The world is actually getting greener 172
The sixth mass extinction? 173
7. New Networks and Decentralised Technologies 177
Geosocialisation. Who - and where! - you are 178
The e-commerce revolution - far from over 179
Influencer marketing 182
The wild decentralised autonomous organisations 182
Blockchain - the Internet of Value 184
The rating economy - good for markets and culture 188
The global village and its new cyber rock stars 190
Share, care, and save (sharing economy) - hot, hot, hot 191
Exponential organisations: big money! 194
8. The Transport, Houses, and Cities of the Future 197
The transport of the future - faster and more flexible 198
Innovation in the construction sector 205
Tomorrow's jet-set nomads 209
9. The New Lifestyles - Experiences and Self-realisation 213
The experience economy - all the world becomes a stage 214
The changeable idea of prestige 218
Self-realisation - the service in which you are the product 219
Innovation and entrepreneurship - self-realisation that gets cheaper 221
Do-it-yourself and maker movements - working for fun 221
The human cloud - total transformation of the labour market 224
More backsourcing 228
Bespoke media 229
Multi-identities are more acceptable 230
Intelligence amplification - better, more flexible education 231
10. Business Management in a More Dynamic World 235
Impulsive organisations 235
Conformist organisations 236
Achievement organisations 237
Pluralist organisations 238
Evolutionary organisations 238
New technologies create new forms of management 240
The new information paradigm: seek-sense-share 241
What should be kept permanent and what should be done flexibly? 242
Delegation - activate the staff 243
Involvement - make use of your meta-organisation 244
Inclusion: mobilise the whole world for your project 245
Algorithm-based management versus human management 246
11. The Political Implications of Tomorrow's Technologies 249
Three social standard patterns that often undermine civilisations 250
The future welfare society - pyramid states or agile app stores? 256
The battle for top-down management and decentralisation 261
Openness or closedness? 263
The information problem in public management 264
Government as a platform: small government - big services 268
The growing attraction of basic income 269
Value-based public management - good or bad? 270
12. The Final Rule 273
Appendix: Sources and Inspiration 279
Bibliography 281
Index 283
