Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management (Band Nr. 1)
4. Auflage September 2015
720 Seiten, Hardcover
Praktikerbuch
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management
This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research.
The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features:
* Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling
* An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer's Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model
* Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems
* A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
The Companion Website xv
Acknowledgments xvii
Part I. Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 1
1 The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis 3
1.1 Introduction / 3
1.2 Systems Engineering / 4
1.3 Risk Assessment and Management / 14
1.4 Concept Road Map / 26
1.5 Epilogue / 35
References / 35
2 The Role of Modeling in the Definition and Quantification of the Risk Function 41
2.1 Introduction / 41
2.2 The Risk Assessment and Management Process: Historical Perspectives / 43
2.3 Information, Intelligence, and Models / 45
2.4 The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models / 47
2.5 On the Complex Definition of Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience: a Systems?]Based Approach / 51
2.6 On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Systems / 56
2.7 On the Definition of Resilience in Measuring Risk to Systems / 57
2.8 On the Complex Quantification of Risk to Systems / 60
References / 65
3 Identifying Risk through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and its Derivatives 69
3.1 Hierarchical Aspects / 69
3.2 Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination / 70
3.3 Hhm / 73
3.4 Hhm and the Theory of Scenario Structuring / 76
3.5 Adaptive Multiplayer Hhm Game / 79
3.6 Water Resources System / 80
3.7 Sustainable Development / 83
3.8 Hhm in a System Acquisition Project / 86
3.9 Software Acquisition / 90
3.10 Hardening the Water Supply Infrastructure / 94
3.11 Risk Assessment and Management for Support of Operations other than War / 98
3.12 Automated Highway System / 103
3.13 Food?]Poisoning Scenarios / 108
References / 113
4 Modeling and Decision Analysis 115
4.1 Introduction / 115
4.2 Decision Rules Under Uncertainty / 116
4.3 Decision Trees / 118
4.4 Decision Matrix / 122
4.5 The Fractile Method / 124
4.6 Triangular Distribution / 127
4.7 Influence Diagrams / 128
4.8 Population Dynamic Models / 132
4.9 PSM / 139
4.10 Example Problems / 144
References / 152
5 Multiobjective Trade?]off Analysis 155
5.1 Introduction / 155
5.2 Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives / 157
5.3 The Surrogate Worth Trade?]off Method / 159
5.4 Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution / 166
5.5 The Swt Method and the Utility Function Approach / 168
5.6 Example Problems / 172
5.7 Summary / 177
References / 178
6 Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 179
6.1 Introduction / 179
6.2 Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility / 180
6.3 Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling / 182
6.4 Characterization of Modeling Errors / 183
6.5 Uncertainty Taxonomy / 185
6.6 The Usim / 196
6.7 Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem / 199
6.8 A Robust Algorithm of the Usim / 204
6.9 Integration of the Usim with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage / 207
6.10 Conclusions / 209
References / 209
7 Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management 211
7.1 Introduction / 211
7.2 Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking / 212
7.3 Rfrm: A Methodological Framework / 213
7.4 Case Study: An Ootw / 220
7.5 Summary / 224
References / 224
Part II. Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 227
8 Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of the Expected Value 229
8.1 Introduction / 229
8.2 Risk of Extreme Events / 230
8.3 The Fallacy of the Expected Value / 232
8.4 The Pmrm / 233
8.5 General Formulation of the Pmrm / 236
8.6 Summary of the Pmrm / 238
8.7 Illustrative Example / 239
8.8 Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Flood through the Pmrm / 240
8.9 Example Problems / 243
8.10 Summary / 257
References / 257
9 Multiobjective Decision?]tree Analysis 259
9.1 Introduction / 259
9.2 Methodological Approach / 261
9.3 Differences between Sodt and Modt / 279
9.4 Summary / 281
9.5 Example Problems / 282
References / 293
10 Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method 295
10.1 Introduction / 295
10.2 Impact Analysis / 296
10.3 The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview / 297
10.4 Combining the Pmrm and the Mmiam / 298
10.5 Relating Multiobjective Decision Trees to the Mriam / 304
10.6 Example Problems / 313
10.7 Epilogue / 325
References / 326
11 Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM 329
11.1 A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method / 329
11.2 Statistics of Extremes / 333
11.3 Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the Pmrm / 338
11.4 Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f4(·) / 344
11.5 Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events / 350
11.6 Summary / 356
11.7 Example Problems / 357
References / 368
12 Systems?]Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and Communication 371
12.1 Introduction / 371
12.2 The Journey: The Guiding Principles in the Broader Context of the Emerging Next Generation Developed by the Federal Aviation Administration / 372
References / 387
13 Fault Trees 389
13.1 Introduction / 389
13.2 Basic Fault-Tree Analysis / 391
13.3 Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis / 392
13.4 Minimal Cut Sets / 397
13.5 The DARE Using Fault Trees / 400
13.6 Extreme Events in Fault Tree Analysis / 403
13.7 An Example Problem Based on a Case Study / 405
13.8 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis / 409
13.9 Event Trees / 411
13.10 Example Problems / 414
References / 420
14 Multiobjective Statistical Method 423
14.1 Introduction / 423
14.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem / 424
14.3 Formulation of the Optimization Problem / 424
14.4 The Msm: Step-by-Step / 425
14.5 The Swt Method / 427
14.6 Multiple Objectives / 428
14.7 Applying the Msm / 429
14.8 Example Problems / 432
References / 438
15 Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management 439
15.1 Introduction / 439
15.2 Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management / 440
15.3 Project Risk Management Methods / 443
15.4 Aircraft Development Example / 450
15.5 Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition / 454
15.6 Critical Factors That Affect Software Nontechnical Risk / 458
15.7 Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation / 460
15.8 Discrete Dynamic Modeling / 461
15.9 Summary / 469
References / 469
16 Modeling Complex Systems of Systems with Phantom System Models 473
16.1 Introduction / 473
16.2 What Have We Learned from Other Contributors? / 474
16.3 The Centrality of the States of the System in Modeling and in Risk Analysis / 476
16.4 The Centrality of Time in Modeling Multidimensional Risk, Uncertainty, and Benefits / 477
16.5 Extension of Hhm to Psm / 478
16.6 Psm and Meta-modeling / 480
16.7 Psm Laboratory / 486
16.8 Summary / 488
References / 489
17 Adaptive Two?]Player Hierarchical Holographic Modeling Game for Counterterrorism Intelligence Analysis 493
17.1 Introduction / 493
17.2 Bayes' Theorem / 494
17.3 Modeling the Multiple Perspectives of Complex Systems / 495
17.4 Adaptive Two?]Player Hhm Game: Terrorist Networks versus Homeland Protection / 499
17.5 The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models and the Centrality of State Variables in Intelligence Analysis / 502
17.6 Hierarchical Adaptive Two?]Player Hhm Game / 504
17.7 Collaborative Computing Support for Adaptive Two?]Player Hhm Games / 505
17.8 Summary / 507
References / 508
18 Inoperability Input-Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors 511
18.1 Overview / 511
18.2 Background: The Original Leontief Input-Output Model / 512
18.3 Inoperability Input-Output Model / 513
18.4 Regimes of Recovery / 516
18.5 Supporting Databases for Iim Analysis / 517
18.6 National and Regional Databases for Iim Analysis / 518
18.7 Rims Ii / 522
18.8 Development of the Iim and its Extensions / 523
18.9 The Dynamic Iim / 527
18.10 Practical Uses of the Iim / 530
18.11 Uncertainty Iim / 533
18.12 Example Problems / 536
18.13 Summary / 539
References / 540
19 Case Studies 543
19.1 A Risk?]Based Input-Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout / 543
19.2 Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Applying the Iim with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina / 558
19.3 Ex Post Analysis Using the Iim of the September 11, 2001, Attack on the United States / 569
19.4 Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat / 575
19.5 The Statistics of Extreme Events and 6?]Sigma Capability / 587
19.6 Sequential Pareto?]Optimal Decisions Made During Emergent Complex Systems of Systems: An Application to the Faa Nextgen / 593
References / 612
Appendix: Optimization Techniques 617
A.1 Introduction to Modeling and Optimization / 617
A.2 Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity / 655
A.3 The Farmer's Dilemma: Linear Model and Duality / 657
A.4 Standard Normal Probability Table / 664
References / 665
Author Index 667
Subject Index 673
