Risk Analysis
Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities
1. Auflage April 2008
206 Seiten, Hardcover
Wiley & Sons Ltd
Kurzbeschreibung
In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. It features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil and gas, and ICT (Information and Communication Technology).
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers.
Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications.
* Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required.
* Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis.
* Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may occur.
* Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools.
* Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology).
* Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis.
Professor Aven's previous book Foundations of Risk Analysis presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field.
Part I: Theory and methods.
1 What is a risk analysis?
1.1 Why risk analysis?.
1.2 Risk management.
1.3 Examples: decision situations.
2 What is risk?
2.1 Vulnerability.
2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively.
3 The risk analysis process: planning.
3.1 Problem definition.
3.2 Selection of analysis method.
4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment.
4.1 Identification of initiating events.
4.2 Cause analysis.
4.3 Consequence analysis.
4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties.
4.5 Risk picture: Risk presentation.
5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment.
5.1 Comparisons of alternatives.
5.2 Management review and judgement.
6 Risk analysis methods.
6.1 Coarse risk analysis.
6.2 Job safety analysis.
6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis.
6.4 Hazard and operability studies.
6.5 SWIFT.
6.6 Fault tree analysis.
6.7 Event tree analysis.
6.8 Bayesian networks.
6.9 Monte Carlo simulation.
Part II Examples of applications.
7 Safety measures for a road tunnel.
7.1 Planning.
7.2 Risk assessment.
7.3 Risk treatment.
8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation.
8.1 Planning.
8.2 Risk analysis.
8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives.
8.4 Management review and judgement.
9 Production assurance.
9.1 Planning.
9.2 Risk analysis.
9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives.
9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision.
10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot.
10.1 Planning.
10.2 Risk analysis.
10.3 Risk picture.
10.4 Risk-reducing measures.
10.5 Management review and judgment. Decision.
10.6 Discussion.
11 Risk analysis process for municipalities.
11.1 Planning .
11.2 Risk assessment.
11.3 Risk treatment.
12 Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise.
12.1 Planning.
12.2 Risk analysis.
12.3 Overall risk picture.
12.4 Risk treatment.
13 Discussion.
13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool.
13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values.
13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses.
13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results.
13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach.
13.6 Risk perspectives.
13.7 Scientific basis.
13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment.
13.9 Critical systems and activities.
13.10 Conclusions.
A Probability calculus and statistics.
A.1 The meaning of a probability.
A.2 Probability calculus.
A.3 Probability distributions: expected value.
A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics).
B Introduction to reliability analysis.
B.1 Reliability of systems composed of components.
B.2 Production system.
B.3 Safety system.
C Approach for selecting risk analysis methods.
C.1 Expected consequences.
C.2 Uncertainty factors.
C.3 Frame conditions.
C.4 Selection of a specific method.
D Terminology.
D.1 Risk management: relationships between key terms.
Bibliography.
Index.
