Decision Quality
Value Creation from Better Business Decisions
1. Auflage April 2016
256 Seiten, Hardcover
Wiley & Sons Ltd
Kurzbeschreibung
Few things are as valuable as the ability to make good decisions. Decision Quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from every decision. Dr. Carl Spetzler has worked with organizations across industries to improve their decision-making capabilities. He and his co-authors show you how to frame a problem or opportunity, create a set of attractive alternatives, identify relevant uncertain information, clarify the values in the decision, apply tools of analysis, and develop buy-in among stakeholders. Their straightforward approach can be applied to all types of decisions. You will learn:
* The six element of decisions quality, and how to apply them
* The difference between a good decision and a good outcome
* Why a decision can only be as good as the best of the available alternative
* Methods for making both 'significant' and strategic decisions
* The mental traps that undermine decision quality and how to avoid them
* How to deal with uncertainty--a factor in every important choice
* How to judge the quality of a decision at the time you're making it
* How organizations have benefited from building quality into their decisions
Many people are satisfied with 'good enough' when making important decisions. This book provides a method that will take you beyond 'good enough' to true Decision Quality.
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Add value with every decision using a simple yet powerful framework
Few things are as valuable in business, and in life, as the ability to make good decisions. Can you imagine how much more rewarding your life and your business would be if every decision you made were the best it could be? Decision Quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from every decision.
Dr. Carl Spetzler is a leader in the field of decision science and has worked with organizations across industries to improve their decision-making capabilities. He and his co-authors, all experienced consultants and educators in this field, show you how to frame a problem or opportunity, create a set of attractive alternatives, identify relevant uncertain information, clarify the values that are important in the decision, apply tools of analysis, and develop buy-in among stakeholders. Their straightforward approach is elegantly simple, yet practical and powerful. It can be applied to all types of decisions.
Our business and our personal lives are marked by a stream of decisions. Some are small. Some are large. Some are life-altering or strategic. How well we make those decisions truly matters. This book gives you a framework and thinking tools that will help you to improve the odds of getting more of what you value from every choice. You will learn:
* The six requirements for decision quality, and how to apply them
* The difference between a good decision and a good outcome
* Why a decision can only be as good as the best of the available alternatives
* Methods for making both "significant" and strategic decisions
* The mental traps that undermine decision quality and how to avoid them
* How to deal with uncertainty--a factor in every important choice
* How to judge the quality of a decision at the time you're making it
* How organizations have benefited from building quality into their decisions.
Many people are satisfied with 'good enough' when making important decisions. This book provides a method that will take you and your co-workers beyond 'good enough' to true Decision Quality.
Preface
Acknowledgments
Biographies
Part I The Decision Quality Framework
1 The Power of Decisions
Decision Quality: A Framework for Better Decisions
Decision Skills Can be Learned
Decisions Versus Outcomes
KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER
2 The Requirements for Decision Quality
The Appropriate Frame
Creative Alternatives
Relevant and Reliable Information
Clear Values and Tradeoffs
Sound Reasoning
Commitment to Action
JUDGING THE QUALITY OF A DECISION
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
3 Getting to Decision Quality
Declaring the Need for a Decision
Setting the Decision Agenda
Understanding the Destination of Decision Quality
Avoiding Decision Traps and biases
Designing the Decision Process through Diagnosis
Tailoring to fit the decision
KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER
Endnotes
Part II The Six Requirements for DQ
4 The Appropriate Frame
A Friday Afternoon Dilemma
The Key Components of a frame
Framing the Friday Afternoon Dilemma
An Extended Example: THE House Decision
Developing an Appropriate Frame
The Decision Hierarchy: A Tool for Framing
Things that Can Go Wrong
Judging the Quality of a Decision Frame
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
5 Creative Alternatives
Characteristics of Good Alternatives
The Strategy Table: A Tool for Defining Alternatives
Things that Can Go Wrong
Judging the Quality of Alternatives
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
6 Relevant and Reliable Information
INFORMATION FROM A DECISION PERSPECTIVE
An Extended Example: Michael's Job Choice
STRUCTURING THE RELEVANT INFORMATION IN A DECISION
The Decision Tree: A Tool for Structuring a Decision
What is Reliable?
Things that Can Go Wrong
Judging the Quality of Information
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
7 Clear Values and Tradeoffs
Values and tradeoffs for Decisions
Michael's Values and Tradeoffs
Values in a Business Context
Making Tradeoffs in Business Decisions
Things that Can Go Wrong
Judging the Quality of Values
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
8 Sound Reasoning
Reasoning for Michael's Job Decision
Reasoning in More Complex Decisions
The Relevance Diagram: A Tool for Structuring Complex Decisions
The DECISION MODEL: A Tool for analyzing Complex Decisions
The Tornado Diagram: A Tool for Displaying the Relevance of Information
Flying Bars: A Tool for Displaying Overall Uncertainty
Things that Can Go Wrong
When to Get Help with Reasoning
The Power of ITERATING FROM A SIMPLE START
Judging the Quality of Reasoning
Key Points to Remember
Endnotes
9 Commitment to Action
Two Mindsets: Decision and Action
Commitment through Participation and Ownership
Conscious Commitment
Things that Can Go Wrong
Judging the Quality of Commitment to Action
Key Points to Remember
Part III How to Achieve DQ
10 Biases and Traps in Decision-Making
MECHANISMS OF THE MIND
Protection of Mindset
Personality and Habits
Faulty Reasoning
Automatic Associations and Relative Thinking
Social Influences
Summing Up
Endnotes
11 Megabiases that Undermine DQ
DQ and Megabiases
Megabias #1: Narrow Framing
Megabias #2: The Illusion of DQ
Megabias #3: The Agreement Trap
Megabias #4: The Comfort Zone Megabias
Megabias #5: The Advocacy/Approval Myth
General Guidelines for Avoiding Megabiases
Endnotes
12 Achieving Quality in Strategic Decisions
The Dialogue Decision Process
Four Phases of Dialogue
Every Decision Situation is Different
Advantages of the DDP
13 Achieving Quality in Significant Decisions
THE DQ APPRAISAL CYCLE: ITERATING OUR WAY TO DQ
The DQ Appraisal Cycle in Action: ROBIN'S CAREER CROSSROADS
Summing Up
Part IV The Journey to DQ
14 The Amoco Unleaded Gasoline Decision
Getting Started on the Unleaded Decision
Seeking Greater Clarity on the Key Uncertainty
Competing Reports
The Bottom Line
Decades of Experience in Improving Value
Endnotes
15 Building Organizational Decision Quality
Organizational DQ
The Components of ODQ
Reaching ODQ
Chevron's Journey to ODQ
Taking the First Step
Endnotes
16 Embarking on the DQ Journey
What Next?
Endnotes
References
Hannah I. Winter is a partner with Strategic Decisions Group, where she has been a strategy consultant and educator for over 20 years. She co-directs SDG's Executive Education practice, for which she develops and leads courses and education programs designed to build individual capability in decision quality and risk management. She oversees the firm's Strategic Decision and Risk Management education partnership with Stanford University's Center for Professional Development. Under her leadership, the program has grown to more than 8,000 participants and 1,000 graduates. In addition, dozens of technology, life sciences, and energy corporations have incorporated SDRM courses into their in-house training curriculum. She frequently delivers lectures and presentations to international audiences on the principles and applications of decision quality in a business setting. Prior to launching the SDRM program with Stanford, Ms. Winter helped Fortune 100 companies develop and implement better strategies at the corporate, business unit, and technology levels. She developed business and marketing strategies for organizations across a variety of sectors including automotive, consumer electronics, telecommunications, oil & gas, and utilities. Ms. Winter received a BS in 1986 and an MS in1987 in electrical engineering, and an MBA in1992, all from Stanford University. She is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals.
Dr. Jennifer L. Meyer has led client engagements at Strategic Decisions Group for more than 20 years. She has supported companies in the oil and gas, transportation, manufacturing, and technology industries with strategy development, economic evaluation, and business portfolio modeling. Dr. Meyer specializes in technically complex analyses and organizationally complex alignment processes. She also leads training programs for organizations who wish to develop decision skills internally and build organizational decision quality. Her engagements with organizations have led to billions of dollars of added value through better strategic decisions. Her work with teams has created improved decision processes and better decision methodology for reaching the highest value choices. Dr. Meyer is frequently invited to present on decision quality and related topics at professional conferences and corporate decision meetings. Prior to joining SDG, she was an assistant professor in the College of Business Administration at the University of Nebraska--Lincoln. Dr. Meyer received her BA in 1984 in mathematics and physics from Drake University. She received an MS in 1986 and a PhD in 1989 in operations research from Stanford University. She is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals.