Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of
Statistics, University College London This book looks at the
problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only
one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic
principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events;
assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that
decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be
reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that
only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible
decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only
elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those
concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his
retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley
has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida,
George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University
of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of
Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents

* Decisions and uncertain events

* A numerical measure for uncertainty

* The laws of probability

* A numerical measure for consequences

* The utility of money

* Bayes' Theorem

* Value of information

* Decision trees

* The assessment of probabilities and utilities

* An appreciation

Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index