Judgment and Choice

Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are made
intuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almost
instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the
unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise
choice, which accounts for almost all real decision-making
activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and
educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on
decision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in that
it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who
recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations
people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to
choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear
and non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitive
judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to
make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential
shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of
learning the limits to one?s judgmental a bility. The purpose of
this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of
increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be
of great value to all decision makers?in commerce, government
service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents
Preface;

* The nature of human judgement;

* Randomness and the probabilistic environment;

* Combining information for prediction;

* Combining information for evaluation and choice;

* Choice under uncertainty;

* On learning relations;

* The role of memory in judgement;

* Creativity, imagination, and choice;

* Problem structuring and decision aids;

* Human judgement?an overview; Appendices; Index

Reviews of the First Edition ??I believe that Professor Hogarth?s
book will prove to be of historical importance in the development
of the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal of
Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. ??Hogarth has given us a clear,
integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has
managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the
direct practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly,
ASQ, June 1982.