Evidence-Based Technical Analysis
Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals
Wiley Trading Series
1. Edition December 2006
544 Pages, Hardcover
Handbook/Reference Book
Short Description
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis is a breakthrough book that rigorously applies science and statistics to determine the effectiveness of technical analysis in forecasting markets and providing profitable trading signals. This book provides a methodology for evaluating the performance of objective trading rules, even when data mining methods--which can positively bias results--are used. Author David Aronson tests more than 6,400 trading rules to demonstrate the application of a new approach to rule and system evaluation. By using the methods discussed, today's trading technician can implement data mining methods without fear of chasing fool's gold.
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.
About the Author.
Introduction.
PART I Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations.
CHAPTER 1 Objective Rules and Their Evaluation.
CHAPTER 2 The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis.
CHAPTER 3 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis.
CHAPTER 4 Statistical Analysis.
CHAPTER 5 Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals.
CHAPTER 6 Data-Mining Bias: The Fool's Gold of Objective TA.
CHAPTER 7 Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion.
PART II Case Study: Signal Rules for the S&P 500 Index.
CHAPTER 8 Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P 500.
CHAPTER 9 Case Study Results and the Future of TA.
APPENDIX Proof That Detrending Is Equivalent to Benchmarking Based on Position Bias.
Notes.
Index.
