Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles
Statistics in Practice
January 2005
198 Pages, Hardcover
Wiley & Sons Ltd
Assessing Weight-of-Evidence for DNA Profiles is an excellent
introductory text to the use of statistical analysis for assessing
DNA evidence. It offers practical guidance to forensic
scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability as the
book includes background information on statistics -
including likelihood ratios - population genetics, and
courtroom issues.
The author, who is highly experienced in this field, has
illustrated the book throughout with his own experiences as well as
providing a theoretical underpinning to the subject. It is an
ideal choice for forensic scientists and lawyers, as well as
statisticians and population geneticists with an interest in
forensic science and DNA.
1. Introduction.
1.1 Weight-of-evidence theory.
1.2 About the book.
1.3 DNA profiling technology.
1.4 What you need to know already.
1.5 Other resources.
2. Crime on an island.
2.1 Warm-up exercises.
2.2 Rare trait identification evidence.
2.3 Making the island problem more realistic.
2.4 Weight-of-evidence exercises.
3. Assessing evidence via likelihood ratios.
3.1 Likelihood ratios.
3.2 The weight-of-evidence formula.
3.3 General application of the formula.
3.4 Consequences for DNA evidence.
3.5 Some derivations.
3.6 Further weight-of-evidence exercises.
4. Typing technologies.
4.1 STR typing.
4.2 mtDNA typing.
4.3 Y-chromosome markers.
4.4 X-chromosome markers.
4.5 SNP profiles.
4.6 Fingerprints.
5. Some population genetics for DNA evidence.
5.1 A brief overview.
5.2 Ø, or FST.
5.3 A statistical model and sampling formula.
5.4 Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.
5.5 Linkage equilibrium.
5.6 Coancestry.
5.7 Likelihood-based estimation of Ø.
5.8 Population genetics exercises.
6. Identification.
6.1 Choosing the hypotheses.
6.2 Calculating the likelihood ratios.
6.3 Application to STR profiles.
6.4 Application to haploid profiles.
6.5 Mixtures.
6.6 Identification exercises.
7. Relatedness.
7.1 Paternity.
7.2 Other relatedness between two individuals.
7.3 Software for relatedness analysis.
7.4 Inference of ethnicity or phenotype.
7.5 Relatedness exercises.
8. Other approaches to weight of evidence.
8.1 Uniqueness.
8.2 Inclusion/Exclusion probabilities.
8.3 Hypothesis testing.
8.4 Other exercises.
9. Issues for the courtroom.
9.1 Bayesian reasoning in court.
9.2 Some fallacies.
9.3 Some UK appeal cases.
9.4 US National Research Council reports.
9.5 Prosecutor's fallacy exercises.
10. Solutions to exercises.
Bibliography.
Index.
plain English to a nontechnical audience, a skill that every
statistician needs to master for improved communication."
(Technometrics, August 2008)
"...this book should provide a good starting point for any
reader..." (International Statistical Institute, January
2006)
" ... one of the most gifted writers in forensic
interpretation...an excellent contribution to our field."
(Science & Justice Volume 45 no. 3)
D. J. Balding, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK
M. Bishop, UK HGMP Resource Centre, Cambridge, UK
C. Cannings, University of Sheffield, UK
